Hello everyone, today is September 12th, 2024, and the Chinese stock market has closed for the morning session on a Thursday. This morning, the A-shares experienced a slight drop after rising, but the market sentiment is quite dull, do you know why? What will happen next in the market? Please watch carefully and patiently, and I will explain in three minutes.

Firstly: Many investors might have had high expectations for today's A-shares on Thursday, as the three major U.S. stock indices rebounded by more than 1% last night, and today's Asia-Pacific stock markets, including Japan and South Korea, opened high and rose by 1% to 3%. Therefore, many investors had high hopes for today's A-shares on Thursday.

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Secondly: However, today's A-shares still showed a reduced trading volume of 320 billion yuan with a slight drop after rising. There were 3,000 companies rising and nearly 2,000 falling, with 40 companies hitting the daily limit up and 7 hitting the daily limit down. The main force of funds net sold 5.3 billion yuan, which means that overall, today's A-shares on Thursday still showed a bit of a warm-up.

Thirdly: But do you have this feeling, that the A-shares rise and then fall, rise and then fall again, and when the external stock markets fall, it follows suit, but it doesn't rise when they rise, which is quite dull. Do you know why?

The first reason is that the A-shares have their own pattern; they need to bottom out before they can rise. So you often find that after a rebound, they fall again, and after another rebound, they fall again. Wouldn't it be better to just fall back to the second step? Slowly boiling the frog is not good, it wastes time, and it's better to have a short pain than a long one.

The second reason is to look at today's A-shares market. Liquor stocks fell by more than 1.6%, and Kweichow Moutai broke a new low again. Steel, traditional Chinese medicine, and comprehensive agriculture also broke new lows. Mainstream industries like securities, semiconductors, real estate, and insurance did not achieve a strong counterattack, but just a weak fluctuation. Today, the banking sector rebounded a bit, but can the A-shares market be strong with such a market situation?

The third reason is that the entire market can rebound and rise due to favorable news. The A-shares market relies on good news to sustain itself. Electrical equipment and photovoltaic continued to rebound and rose by more than 1% today, the Huawei concept also continued to rebound, and Hainan concepts and immune therapy also continued to rebound.

So you will find that there is good news every day, and there is a rotation of sectors rebounding every day. We know that it is not feasible to always rely on good news to drive the market. What the A-shares market needs more is the market's spontaneous and vigorous influx of funds. Only when the A-shares have bottomed out and external funds are willing to swarm into the market, will the A-shares have reached the bottom.

Fourthly: So the question is, how will the A-shares market perform next?

Firstly, today's major A-shares indices, including the Shanghai 50, rose and then fell by 0.31%, while the CSI 300, STAR 50, Shenzhen Component Index, and Shanghai Composite Index all rose and then fell, closing with a negative adjustment.The SSE 50 index once again broke the new low of the adjustment for the past 4 months, and the CSI 300 is still in a completely bearish trend. Even if the Shenzhen Component Index has a surge, it is still under pressure from the 10-day moving average.

Secondly, the only slightly stronger index in A-shares today is the ChiNext Index, which rose by more than 1% at one point. However, it also encountered the pressure of the previous day's opening price, leading to a retreat after the surge. Fortunately, the ChiNext Index was able to stand on the support of the 20-day moving average, maintaining a strong consolidation.

Lastly, the Shanghai Composite Index is still under pressure from the 5-day moving average, so it is expected that the A-shares index will retreat after a surge today. The 5-day moving average and the gap will continue to form pressure, but due to some rebound, A-shares will maintain a weak consolidation today. A-shares have not yet completed their adjustment.

In fact, it would be better to have a straightforward second retest, as a long-term pain is not as good as a short-term pain. Therefore, when there is a favorable rebound, it falls, and when the global stock market rises, A-shares rebound and then fall again. In fact, A-shares are following a trend that is like boiling a frog in lukewarm water, wasting time. A long-term pain is not as good as a short-term pain, and there are still 7 trading days until the window of change. Let's look forward to the counterattack in A-shares during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day.